RECENT BUY: Starbucks Corp. [SBUX]

  • Decelerating growth and recent events surrounding the company have contributed to a drop in the stock price
  • Strategic initiatives will drive growth in revenues and cash flows moving forward
  • Attractive dividend yield of 2.5% and latest dividend hike of 20%

Starbucks Corporation [SBUX] has been on my radar for a while now and its stock price has finally reached levels that make it an attractive investment for my portfolio. The business of selling coffee seems to be investor friendly and I have admired the growth Starbucks has seen over the years. The coffee industry is the family-friendly version of a “sin stock” (tobacco, alcohol, etc.) and produces a very stable business model with strong margins. Like the so called “sin stocks” coffee is addicting and like many others, I look forward to a cup to jump-start my day. However, due to the popularity of the company I have not seen much value in buying their stock for my portfolio since I started building it in 2015. I would have paid a premium for a piece of the growth and the downside looked too great and all too possible. Sure enough, the stock is down 11% since the beginning of the year and about 12% over the last twelve months and has made its way on to my watchlist. This begs the questions, are recent events and media coverage affecting investor behavior and creating negative pressure on the stock price? Is there potential value for an investment? I have decided to take a further look.

Why did the stock price plunge?

First is the departure of the visionary and leader, Howard Shultz, as well as the retirement of the CFO Scott Maw, which has shaken up the management team. The company also announced that they’re closing 150 stores in FY 2019 as they look to reduce exposure to urban areas citing high rent and labor costs. This doesn’t worry me, in fact, I think it’s prudent given that the company has a store count in the US greater than that of McDonalds. Truth be told, it is extremely difficult for SBUX (or any company) to continue with 15 year, 10 year, and 5 year compound annual growth rates in revenue of 14%, 9%, and 11%, respectively. Eventually the market becomes saturated, growth slows, and the company needs to shift growth to new markets, develop new products, engage in M&A, strictly manage expenses, and/or return cash to shareholders. Having saturated the North American Market, this is exactly where SBUX finds themselves today. Here is a look at the top line dating back to 2000 and the downward trend has become fairly obvious.SBUX sales

But things aren’t actually all that bad and the business is still strong. Here are the Q2 highlights:

  • Net revenue + 14% to $6 billion
  • Americas revenue + 8% to $4 billion
  • Chinese revenues + 54% to $1.2 billion
  • EMEA revenues +15% to $34 million
  • Organic comparable store sales +2-3%

However, the company is seeing margin pressure with operating margins decreasing over 400 basis points. This is due to investments in growth markets, as well as restructuring and impairment charges. I expect margins to normalize in the medium term as management optimizes their sales mix in the US and immerses their business in international growth markets.

What is driving growth moving forward?

The largest driver of growth will be the company’s big expansion plans in China/Asia Pacific (CAP). In December of 2017 SBUX acquired the remaining 50% interest in East China joint venture and now owns over 7,500 stores in 15 countries throughout CAP. In 2017 revenues from CAP increased 10% to $3.2 billion representing only 14% of revenue. Also, operating margins (23.6%) are about 500 basis points better than that of the Americas business. China is known for its tea culture, but its people have begun to “wake up and smell the coffee”. The market is seeing double digit growth rates that look similar to Japan throughout the 60’s and 70’s. Japan is currently the 4th largest consumer of coffee. There is a vast amount of untapped potential as tea sales outnumber coffee sales 10-1 and with an estimated 450-600 million of people expected to join the middle class by 2022, SBUX only needs to grab a fragment of total market share in order to see significant growth in revenues. SBUX is also looking to improve growth in the US through their new partnership with Nestle to form a “Global Coffee Alliance”. This is an effort to expand the consumer packed goods segment, aka packaged Starbucks coffee for your home. This segment has seen its revenues increase by roughly 5% over the last year. The company also has a notably strong loyalty program that drives same store comparable sales. The rewards program membership rose 12% in 2017 and now accounts for 40% of same store sales in the US. According to their 10Q, management expects these strategic initiatives to boost revenue growth to 9-11% in FY 2018.

Cash Flow and Dividends

I expect my portfolio to pay me each and every month and for that income stream to grow. This can only be sustained if the company can turn revenues into cash flow in order to reward shareholders and invest in growth. SBUX has increased its Free Cash Flow (FCF) by 24.2%, annually, over the last decade. This has allowed SBUX to significantly increase its dividend, just recently raising it by 20% and showing a five year growth rate of 23%. The dividend is very healthy too, with an earnings payout ratio of only 40% and a dividend yield of 2.5%. Strong cash flow production is important because as growth eventually slows over the long-term, SBUX will have the ability to invest, buy back shares and boost the dividend to further drive returns. Here is a look at the dividend in relation to earnings and cash flow in the last few years.

SBUX Per Share

Is SBUX Undervalued?

SBUX is currently sporting a higher earnings yield and dividend yield than any previous point in the last decade, at 6.3% and 2.5% respectively.

SBUX yields

Furthermore, the company’s Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-Cash Flow ratios are below their 10 year averages (normalized) of 19.4x and 16.8x at 15.7x and 15.6x, respectively. This is down significantly from their 3 year average ratios of 29.9x and 20.2x. If these ratios revert to their 10 year averages then there could be share price growth somewhere in the 10-25% range, due to multiple expansion.

Continuing to attempt to value the company’s shares, I used the H-Model (DDM) and assumed that next year’s dividends would grow by 20%, then decelerate linearly over the following 10 years. Assuming I require a 9% return and the long-term growth rate is 4%, I reach a fair value estimation of $49.44. This shows the stock to be roughly fairly valued. As an avid follower of Warren Buffet, I am more than happy to buy shares of wonderful companies at fair value. However, I think that this is a very conservative estimate because it does not account for the potential growth rates that could be seen internationally, nor for any growth in the dividend payout ratio.

In order to be consistent with my thoughts on the company’s future I wanted to get an idea of potential upside. I ran a DDM with the assumption that cash flow will grow at 15% over the next 5 years, in which case it will drop to a steady long-term rate of 4%. I then made the assumption that the payout ratio increased linearly from 50-65% over the next 5 years, at which case it would level off at 70% of cash flow, as the business matures. Given a required return of 9%, I calculated fair value at roughly $62. This represents a margin of safety of 23.6%.

There are obviously many ways to model out a company to determine what price is fair value. The array of possible assumptions that fit one’s idea of what will happen to the company are essentially endless, but after completing my analysis and creating some perspective on the stock price, I have come to the conclusion that SBUX is slightly undervalued. I don’t see much downside from here considering the vast amount of people that are going to get up and head to Starbucks on their way to work tomorrow. I have decided to initiate a position in SBUX at $50.19. This is a quality company that should be able to provide my portfolio with strong returns and dividend income for many years to come. SBUX will now represent just shy of 3% of my portfolio and I will look to add more over the coming quarters if the stock continues to drop and/or future quarterly reports describe an even better story.

What do you think of the purchase?

-Mike

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